Is Bolsonaro responsible for the current state of affairs in Brazil?
If this is true, perhaps we need to rewrite the history of the French Revolution, and charge Louis XVI for the deaths by guillotine.
Was Bolsonaro a competent leader? This topic divides Brazilians. My assessment is that, like all administrations, there were both successes and mistakes during his tenure. Among the achievements, we can list numerous economic milestones such as the approval of the independence of the Central Bank and the Sanitation Framework; pension reform, the privatization of Eletrobrás, and many others. The 30% drop in homicide rates (2022 compared to 2017) stands out, a portion of which can be attributed to sound public security policies. There were mistakes, such as the president's stance during the pandemic (though many of his insights proved correct) and perhaps his lack of commitment to promoting even more stringent fiscal adjustments than those implemented by his finance minister.
Brazil's economy is thriving. As highlighted in a previous article, much of this positive momentum can be attributed to a favorable external environment and the reforms implemented between 2016-2022. It is likely that this economic upswing will continue for some time.
The same cannot be said about the country's long-term direction, which becomes uncertain due to the likely future materialization of adverse effects resulting from the repeated strategies of the PT, including resuming unprofitable investments by Petrobras; reactivating the BNDEs; the prospect of increasing public expenses at an average rate of 6% per year above inflation between 2023 and 2024, and a voracious tax appetite targeting businesses and individuals, aiming to raise the tax burden by 0.5% of GDP annually until 2026 to meet unrealistic fiscal targets set by the new framework; and excessive spending. All these policies contributed to the 2015-16 recession, the most severe in Brazil's history. Further uncertainty arises from the evident imbalance in the republic's governance, illustrated by examples like the judiciary's transformation into a legislature, continuous breaches of freedom of expression, and the detention of individuals without due legal process.
On social media, in the press, and in private conversations, it's common to hear that Bolsonaro is "to blame" for Brazil's current situation. Had the former president acted more wisely, follows the argument, he might not have entered into conflict with other branches of government, and also perhaps might not have alienated part of the population with his pandemic posture, thus possibly winning the election, and leading Brazil toward a brighter future. Conversely, others believe Bolsonaro was the most detrimental president in history, and any post-Bolsonaro state of affairs is an improvement. Whether the present situation is better or worse than its counterfactual is subjective and is not the central argument of this note.
Blaming Bolsonaro for Brazil's current situation is a tempting narrative, but it doesn't withstand rigorous historical scrutiny. If Bolsonaro is to blame for Brazil's predicament, should Louis XVI be blamed for the 30,000 guillotined by the Jacobins during the French Revolution? After all, it is always possible to argue that if the king had behaved more generously towards the population, perhaps everything would have worked out just fine, and the Bourbons would still be ruling France today. In the same line of reasoning, shouldn’t the last Qing emperors or Chiang Kai-Shek bear the weight of Mao's tens of millions of deaths? Should Tsar Nicholas II be responsible for Lenin and Stalin's purges, or should Fulgêncio Batista be blamed for the suffering Fidel Castro inflicted upon Cuba for over 60 years? Was Macri responsible for the final blow the Peronists dealt to Argentina's economy, which saw inflation skyrocket from 15% to 150% and the peso's value plummet from 20/USD to 350 in just four years? On the positive side - it is true that Hitler's evil and Chamberlain's incompetence pave the way for Winston Churchill, one of history's greatest statesmen. But were those two responsible for Churchill's brilliant career? Was the Roman Empire's period of peace and prosperity under Augustus due to the senators who assassinated Julius Caesar?
History takes its course, along which each actor takes the responsibility for its own actions, and voters, accountable for the consequences of their choices. Brazil today faces numerous opportunities: the country is blessed with natural resources, boasts strong productivity in the agriculture sector, and is home to a largely hard-working and good-hearted population. Conversely, it struggles with issues of constitutional governance, legal uncertainty, excessive taxes and state expenses, among others. As populist policies and entitlements grow, so does the portion of the population dependent on the state, an ominous sign for democracy.
Our future, both towards economic prosperity and in strengthening a legal system that ensures full rule of law, depends on each individual's attitude and the stance of the political class. The current situation is what it is - for better or worse. Assigning blame to recent events or specific actors, apart from being logically fallacious and historically inaccurate, won't make our problems vanish.